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Load Shedding Back Again? Eskom’s Latest Update on South Africa’s Energy Crisis
By Tafadzwa Shoko
As winter tightens its grip on South Africa in July 2025, concerns are rising over whether Eskom will reintroduce load shedding. After months of uninterrupted power, the utility’s latest data paints a cautiously optimistic picture—but also highlights that risks remain. The big question is: are we truly in the clear?
📈 A Winter of Light – For Now
Eskom recently announced that no load shedding is currently scheduled for July, despite social media rumors claiming Stage 4–6 outages from July 6 to 20 were imminent (OurPower). Official updates from Friday, 11 July confirmed that the grid is stable, with approximately 13 380 MW of unplanned outages, a generation capacity of 30 195 MW, and tonight’s projected demand at 28 346 MW (eskom.co.za).
In statements earlier this year, Eskom CEO Dan Marokane expressed confidence, aiming for “no electricity cuts until end‑August”—as long as unplanned outages remain under 13,000 MW (Reuters). Currently at 13,380 MW there is cause for caution, as each additional thousand megawatts could mean days of load shedding—though Eskom estimates just one day if outages hit 14,000 MW, and around 21 days if it reaches 15,000 MW (Reuters).
Chart 1: The Unplanned Outages Threshold (MW)
| Outages (MW) | Eskom Status | Projected Load Shedding Days |
|---|---|---|
| < 13,000 | Stable – No cutbacks scheduled | 0 days |
| ~14,000 | Mild risk | ~1 day |
| ~15,000 | Moderate risk | ~21 days |
Why July is Tricky: Winter’s Demand & Plant Availability
Winter naturally drives demand higher due to heating, geysers, and longer hours of darkness—especially during morning (05:00–09:00) and evening (17:00–21:00) peaks (OurPower). To add to the challenge, planned maintenance averaged around 4,418 MW between July 4–10, while unplanned outages hovered around 13,380 MW (eskom.co.za). Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has hovered around 60–62% this month, improving slightly—yet still below the 70–80% capacity that would offer a healthy reserve (mineralscouncil.org.za).
Chart 2: Trends in Energy Availability Factor (EAF)
| Period | EAF |
|---|---|
| Dec 2024 | ~57% |
| Jan 2025 | ~57.2% |
| July 4–10, 2025 | 60–62% |
Improvements & New Capacity
Not all news is bleak. Highlights include:
- Medupi Unit 4 returned 800 MW to the grid eight months ahead of schedule on 6 July (eskom.co.za, OurPower).
- Another ~3,470 MW of capacity was scheduled to return by 14 July, and a further 3,170 MW returned ahead of an evening peak on 17 June (eskom.co.za).
- Eskom’s FY 2025 saw load shedding at its lowest levels in three years, with power delivered 96% of the time (eskom.co.za).
These successes stem from more consistent maintenance, fewer boiler failures, better reserve management, and the introduction of emergency diesel (OCGT) plants as buffers when needed (eskom.co.za).
The Renewables Time-Bomb—and Its Promise
Long-term system transformation is key. The REIPPP (Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Programme) and recent battery storage procurement are introducing fresh capacity. Bid Window 5 IPP projects are coming online in 2025; battery storage projects reached 616 MW this May—plus there’s over 1,440 MWh of capacity in the pipeline (Wikipedia).
Cape Town’s Atlantis solar PV plus battery project—still under construction—will yield up to 8 MW and is already contributing to reducing City Power’s reliance on Eskom (Wikipedia). Meanwhile, the 75 MW Grootspruit solar farm aims to supply around 183 GWh of power per year (Wikipedia).
The Dark Side: Sabotage, Crime & Infrastructure
Despite improvements, systemic challenges endure. Eskom’s aging coal fleet, with plants 30–50 years old, remains prone to breakdowns—fuel shortages and infrastructure sabotage exacerbate the situation . Eskom has even blamed criminal syndicates and cable theft for millions in damages—some estimates suggest cable theft alone has cost R16.8 billion . This environment makes achieving a stable grid a recurring struggle.
The Economic Spillover
The stakes extend far beyond convenience. Since 2007, load shedding has diminished GDP growth by 1–1.3% annually, costing the economy up to $230 million per bleak power day (Wikipedia). Businesses face higher costs from generator use, interrupted production, and spoiled refrigerated goods. Health and safety concerns—particularly in clinics and hospitals—have equally serious consequences .
What Eskom Says—and What You Should Do
Eskom emphasizes that winter’s safety depends on keeping unplanned outages under 13,000 MW (Reuters). Proactive measures include:
- Returning under-repaired generation units (3,470 MW by 14 July, 3,170 MW prior).
- Deploying OCGT and reserves during peaks.
- Offering public tools like the Residential Electricity Calculator (socohrvp.org, eskom.co.za, eskom.co.za, eskom.co.za).
- Debunking rumors (“Fake news” on extended 12–18-hour blackouts has been refuted) (OurPower).
Your winter checklist:
- Stay informed—check official Eskom and City municipality schedules.
- Ensure hot water and lighting backups are ready.
- Charge devices and stock up on non-perishables.
- Consider investing in solar + battery or a reliable generator.
The Big Picture: Resilience Is Growing, But So Is Demand
South Africa’s power landscape is slowly shifting: improved EAFs, greater renewables, and more stable system management are signs of progress. The record 281-day period without load shedding in 2024 illustrates how much can be achieved (OurPower, socohrvp.org, csir.co.za).
However, the tight margin between supply and winter demand—exacerbated by aging coal stations—is still razor-thin. While Eskom’s immediate priority is to keep outage levels below 13,000 MW this winter, any sudden spike in unplanned outages, breakdown at major stations like Medupi, Kusile or Koeberg, or surges in demand could quickly push the system beyond safe limits.
What Happens If It Fails?
Should outages breach 14,000–15,000 MW, select load shedding will resume, likely Stage 1–2 during peaks. At Stage 3+ (common when outages hit 15,000 MW), significant power cuts spread across sectors, disrupting homes, businesses, schools and healthcare. Stage 6+ (over 6,000 MW shed) hasn’t been ruled out in extreme cases .
A Turning Point—Or Just a Pause?
South Africa stands at a delicate moment. On one hand, the longest blackout-free streak in recent memory shows operational gains. On the other hand, coal reliability still drives the grid’s vulnerability—and winter is when grid stress peaks.
Eskom must accelerate plant repairs, expand renewables, and lock in OCGT readiness. As for South Africans, this winter is a chance to reshape energy habits, adopt backup solutions, and push for green power—because each kilowatt conserved adds freedom to the grid.
Bottom line: For now, no load shedding—but don’t be complacent. Winter is won one megawatt at a time.
